Trend analysis of world energy pattern
release time: 2021-08-05

Text/Lin Weibin, PhD in Economics, Researcher of Capital Institute of Science and Technology Development Strategy


In recent years, due to the slowdown of world economic growth and the adjustment of industrial structure, energy demand has been weak. On the other hand, due to factors such as the "shale revolution" and large-scale investment and construction under the background of high energy prices, energy supply capacity has continued to increase. Increase, global energy supply exceeds demand, and energy prices continue to be low.


So, will this downturn continue? What changes may happen to the energy supply and demand situation in the future? At the same time, global warming issues have increasingly aroused people’s thinking and concerns about the use of fossil energy, Paris Climate Change Conference Quietly started the era of the end of human fossil energy.


So, how will the energy structure be adjusted in depth in the future? Studying and judging the supply and demand of the future energy market, energy price trends, energy structure changes and other issues are of great significance to countries in formulating energy development strategies and responding to energy security issues.


1. Emerging market economies drive continued growth in energy demand


Since 2012, the growth rate of global energy consumption has significantly slowed down. According to BP statistics, in the 10 years before 2012, the world’s total primary energy consumption increased from 13.88 billion tons of standard coal in 2002 to 18.03 billion tons of standard coal in 2012, with an average annual increase of nearly 420 million tons of standard coal. The growth rate was 2.7%. The rapid growth in energy demand during this period was mainly driven by the rapid development of the Chinese economy. In the past 10 years, China's energy consumption increased by 2.34 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for 56.4% of the total increase in world energy consumption of 4.15 billion tons of standard coal during the same period. Since 2012, the world energy demand has shown a weak trend, and the growth rate has gradually slowed down. In 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, the world's primary energy consumption growth rate was 1.4%, 2.0%, 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively. This is lower than the average annual growth rate of 2.7% in the previous 10 years.


There are two main reasons for this phenomenon:


First, after the developed countries experienced the financial crises in 2007 and 2008, their economies have not yet fully recovered and their energy demand has been weak. Taking North America, Europe and Eurasia as examples, the North American primary energy consumption in 2015 was 3.99 billion tons of standard coal. Although it increased slightly compared to 2012, it was still lower than the 2008 consumption of 4.03 billion tons of standard coal; Europe In 2015, the primary energy consumption in Europe and Asia was 4.05 billion tons of standard coal, a decrease of 6.2% compared to 2008.


Second, the slowdown in economic growth in emerging market countries and the adjustment of industrial structure have reduced the growth rate of energy demand. The most representative of these is China. As the economic development enters a new normal, the deep adjustment and continuous upgrading of the industrial structure have caused the heavy industry with high energy consumption to continue to fall in the proportion of the total economy, and energy demand has entered a stage of low-speed growth. China's consumption growth rate dropped from 7.3% in 2011 to 0.9% in 2015, approaching the world average. In addition, according to BP's statistics, the proportion of China's energy consumption growth in the world's total growth has dropped from 74.5% in 2011 to 34.4% in 2015, and its role in stimulating total energy demand has been significantly weakened.


Despite the current weakness in energy demand, emerging market countries such as Asia, South America and Africa still have a lot of room for economic development. Industrialization and urbanization will continue to advance, and the population will continue to expand. In the future, it will become the main source of global energy demand growth. Driving force. Judging from the forecasts of authoritative energy organizations such as BP and IEA, even though there are differences in the judgment of total energy consumption due to different statistical calibers and methods of converting electricity into primary energy, the trends are generally the same. By 2035, the world's total primary energy consumption is expected to fluctuate in the range of 24.9-28 billion tons of standard coal. Among them, BP’s forecast is the most conservative. In 2035, the world’s total primary energy consumption will reach 24.9 billion tons of standard coal, an increase of about 6.1 billion tons of standard coal from 2015, a cumulative increase of 34% and an average annual growth rate of 1.4%. There has been a slight improvement over the past few years.


Looking at traditional high energy consumption regions by region, such as North America and Europe, affected by factors such as slowing economic and population growth and improved energy utilization efficiency, the total energy consumption in the future will remain basically unchanged. The fast-growing emerging economies will contribute almost all of the energy demand growth in the next 20 years.


Specifically, among all emerging economies that are driving future energy demand growth, India's performance is prominent. Although India’s primary energy consumption in 2015 was only about 1 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for less than 6% of the world’s total primary energy consumption, its consumption has almost doubled compared with 10 years ago. This growth trend has not slowed down, and the growth rate has remained between 5% and 6% in recent years. In addition, India’s role in driving the growth of world energy demand has initially emerged. In the past 10 years, India’s energy consumption growth accounted for 13.9% of the total global growth, and in 2015 alone, this proportion was as high as 27.1%. . According to BP forecast data, India will replace China as the main contributor to global energy demand growth after 2020, and contribute a quarter of global energy growth in the next 10 years.


There are two main reasons why India has such great potential: First, the rapidly growing population has caused huge energy demand. At present, India’s total population has exceeded 1.2 billion, accounting for about one-sixth of the world’s total population. As the world’s second most populous country, India’s total primary energy consumption in 2015 only accounted for 5.3% of the world’s total, about five percent. One-third of the population still has no access to electricity. In order to meet the basic living needs of the people, a large amount of investment will flow to the power industry. Second, the rapid economic growth has led to the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, and the demand for energy is also growing. In the past 10 years, India’s GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 9.5%, reaching US$2.1 trillion by 2015. According to BP estimates, by 2035, world GDP will more than double (over $74 trillion), and China and India will together contribute almost half of the world GDP increase. This shows that India's sustained and rapid economic development will inevitably lead to strong energy demand in industries, transportation and other fields.


2. The energy structure will undergo significant changes


So far, fossil energy, represented by coal, oil and natural gas, still has an unshakable position in energy consumption, but its internal structure is constantly changing. Since the second industrial revolution, the consumption of fossil energy has risen sharply, and a coal-based consumption pattern has initially formed. After entering the 20th century, especially since the Second World War, the consumption of oil and natural gas has continued to increase, and oil has replaced coal as the main energy source. According to BP statistics, the share of oil in the world’s primary energy consumption reached its peak in 1973 (48.7%) and decreased year by year. By 2015, the share of oil was 32.9%; the share of natural gas continued to increase, from 1965. 15.8% of coal rose from 15.8% in 2015 to 23.9% in 2015, an increase of about 8 percentage points; after the proportion of coal fell to its lowest point in 1999 (about 25%), it rebounded slightly and remained at 30% in recent years. After a short period of time, the proportion of nuclear energy began to decline, and it accounted for less than 4.5% in 2015; the consumption of renewable energy has been steadily increasing in the past few decades (mainly hydropower), accounting for The proportion rose from 5.6% in 1965 to 9.6% in 2015, an increase of 4 percentage points.


This shows that so far, oil is still the most important energy source. In addition, fossil energy has fluctuated internally. Its share of world primary energy consumption has been maintained at more than 85%, and the share of nuclear energy and renewable energy is still small.


Although the status of fossil energy as the dominant energy source will not change in the short term, the future energy structure will undergo significant changes due to factors such as global climate change and the development of new technologies. On the one hand, with the convening of the Paris Climate Conference in December 2015, it ushered in a turning point for mankind to respond to climate change. The "Paris Agreement" proposes to control the global average temperature rise within 2°C, and to control global carbon emissions to 40 billion tons by 2030, achieve net zero emissions around 2080, and strive to limit the temperature rise within 1.5°C, 2060 Achieve net zero emissions around the year. To achieve the above goals, by the second half of this century, the world will gradually end the era of fossil energy and establish a low-carbon or even zero-carbon energy system with new energy and renewable energy as the mainstay. For this reason, all countries are continuously increasing energy conservation, emission reduction and promoting the development of renewable energy. In the foreseeable future, the proportion of fossil energy will continue to decline, while the proportion of renewable energy will continue to rise. On the other hand, due to the development of new technologies, the mining cost of natural gas is getting lower and lower, and as a relatively clean, low-carbon fuel, natural gas will replace coal as the second largest fuel. According to BP forecast data, by 2035, oil and coal will account for approximately 28% and 24% of primary energy consumption, respectively. Compared with 2015, both have dropped by nearly 5 percentage points; the proportion of natural gas will be the same as in 2015. The ratio has increased by 1 percentage point, which is about 25%; the proportion of nuclear energy in primary energy consumption is still low, but it has also increased by about 1.5 percentage points; the proportion of renewable energy has changed the most and will increase in the next 20 years Nearly 7.5 percentage points.


Different from BP's forecast, IEA assumed three different scenarios to predict the future energy structure. The difference between these three scenarios lies in the intensity of actions that countries will take to deal with global climate change. If the current climate policy remains unchanged, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption will basically not change by 2035, and the reduced proportion of oil will be replaced by nuclear energy and renewable energy; if the climate policy is gradually improved on the existing basis, The forecast of the energy structure in 2035 is basically the same as BP; if countries implement the most stringent climate policy (IEA's "450 scenario"), the proportion of coal will fall to 15%, while the proportion of renewable energy will rise to about 26%.


 


In general, although there are certain differences in the forecasts of different agencies, as long as countries take certain measures to solve the problem of climate change, the trend of future energy structure changes will be roughly the same. The proportion of fossil energy in primary energy consumption has been significantly reduced, from the current 85% to about 75%. Among them, oil is expected to grow steadily at an average annual rate of 0.9%, but its proportion in primary energy is declining. Despite this, oil is still the most important fuel; natural gas is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8%. It will become the fastest growing fossil energy and will replace coal as the second largest fuel by 2030. In addition, the proportion of non-fossil energy is rising rapidly, especially renewable energy.


While the global energy structure is gradually changing, the energy structure of various regions of the world has also changed accordingly. For a long time, there have been significant differences in the energy structure of different regions of the world, and this difference is mainly due to the imbalance of resource distribution. Taking the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region as examples, due to the rich oil and gas resources in the Middle East and the extremely low extraction costs, oil and natural gas account for about 98% of the total energy consumption, which is much higher than other regions. In the Asia-Pacific region, China, Countries such as India are extremely rich in coal resources, making coal account for more than half of the total energy consumption, while the proportion of oil and natural gas is obviously low, only about 40%. In the future, constrained by carbon emissions, the proportion of coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region will be significantly reduced, while the proportion of natural gas and non-fossil energy will tend to rise.


Taking China as an example, according to the prediction of the China Energy Research Association, by 2030, the proportion of coal consumption will drop to 49%, a 15% drop from 2015; the proportion of oil consumption will drop to 17%, which is not a big drop; the total amount of clean energy (Including natural gas and non-fossil energy) accounted for 34%, an increase of 16 percentage points from 2015. It can be seen that the optimization of China's primary energy consumption structure is consistent with the changing trend of the world's energy consumption structure.


In the previous article, through the analysis of the total energy consumption and energy consumption structure, as well as the forecast of energy demand, it is concluded that energy demand continues to grow and the energy structure has undergone significant changes. In this issue, we will continue to analyze the trend of the world's energy pattern from the adjustment of energy supply structure, the shift of the energy trade center of gravity, and the fluctuation of energy prices.


1. Energy supply is becoming more multi-polar and diversified


With the rise of unconventional oil and gas such as shale oil and shale gas, energy supply is becoming more and more polarized and diversified. In the past 10 years, the supply of oil and natural gas has increased at an average annual rate of 1.1% and 2.4% respectively. By 2015, the global oil and natural gas supply will reach 91.7 million barrels per day and 3.5 trillion cubic meters respectively. As an established oil production region in the Middle East, from 2005 to 2015, although oil supply fluctuates from time to time, it has grown at an average annual rate of 1.7%. In 2015, oil supply reached 30.1 million barrels per day, accounting for oil supply. About 33% of the total, and this proportion has remained basically unchanged in recent years. At present, the Middle East is still the most important source of global oil supply.


However, benefiting from the shale gas revolution, rich oil and gas resources in American countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Venezuela have been developed and utilized. According to BP statistics, among the remaining proven reserves of oil in 2015, the Americas (including North America and South America) Americas) accounted for 33.4% of the world and 70.6% of the remaining proven reserves in the Middle East. The supply of oil (including crude oil, shale oil, liquefied natural gas, etc.) in the Americas increased from 21.0 million barrels per day in 2005 to 2015. 27.4 million barrels/day, an average annual increase of 640,000 barrels/day, with huge growth potential. If the American oil supply continues to grow at an average annual rate of 2.7%, it will surpass the Middle East to become the largest oil supply area around 2025. Also benefiting from breakthroughs in shale gas development technology, the United States surpassed Russia to become the world's largest natural gas producer for the first time with an output of 584 billion cubic meters in 2009, and continued to grow at a rate of 4.7%. In 2015, its annual output exceeded Russia. About 200 billion cubic meters.


As the development of unconventional oil and gas matures and grows, the Americas region is expected to become the "second Middle East." In terms of the speed of development, the United States is particularly eye-catching. In 2015, the U.S. daily oil production reached the highest level in history-12.7 million barrels, almost doubled compared with 10 years ago. According to the calculations of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. dependence on foreign oil has declined in 2015 To 24.0%, and in 2005, the foreign dependence of the United States on oil was as high as 60.3%, the United States is likely to become a net oil exporter after 2020, and according to BP’s conservative forecast, the United States will also become oil in 2030 The net exporter of the country. The above shows that the US "energy independence" strategy will become possible.


In addition, Canada is even more worth mentioning. Based on the remaining proven reserves in 2015, Canada’s oil reserves were 172.19 billion barrels, accounting for 10.1% of the world’s total proven reserves, second only to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

Nerera. Among them, oil sands resources are the most abundant. About 95% of the oil sands resources proven in the world are concentrated in Alberta, Canada. Relying on oil sands and other unconventional oil and gas and large areas of conventional oil and gas on land and sea, Canada may become a new energy superpower. According to the IEA's forecast data, Canada's oil production will reach 30-60 million barrels per day by 2030. The rise of energy highlands in the Americas has further strengthened the trend of multi-polarization of energy supply.


From the perspective of energy supply structure, affected by the increasingly stringent carbon emission policies and the rapid development of new energy technologies, the supply of natural gas has entered a golden age, the status of renewable energy continues to rise, and energy supply continues to diversify in a more efficient and cleaner direction. develop. As an unconventional gas source, shale gas is rich in reserves and widely distributed in the world, accounting for about 50% of the global unconventional natural gas resources. With the application and promotion of hydraulic fracturing technology and horizontal well drilling technology, the supply of natural gas The increase can be divided almost equally into conventional gas sources and shale gas. Most of the increase in conventional gas sources comes from non-OECD, with significant growth in the Middle East, China and Russia; the proportion of shale gas in total production has risen from slightly more than 10% in 2014 to close to 25% in 2035, and in the next 10 years Almost all of the growth in shale gas production comes from the United States, and by 2035, China will become the country that contributes the most to the increase in shale gas production, with daily production reaching about 370 million cubic meters. The supply of natural gas has changed from "distributed" to "centralized", which has alleviated a major problem that restricts the development of natural gas-long-distance transmission. In the future, the status of natural gas in energy supply will continue to rise.


As a cleaner energy source, renewable energy plays an increasingly important role in the diversified development of energy supply, especially in the field of power generation. According to the findings of the Bloomberg New Energy Economic Research Group (BNEF), 8% of the electricity generated by G20 members in 2015 came from renewable energy power generation (excluding traditional hydropower), which has increased significantly from 4.6% in 2010; At present, seven G20 members provide more than 10% of their electricity consumption through renewable energy, compared with only three in 2010; Germany has the highest proportion of renewable energy power generation, reaching 36%; the United Kingdom’s renewable energy power generation accounts for The growth rate is the fastest, from 6% in 2010 to 24% in 2015.


Although the trend of sustainable development of renewable energy in the future is clear, since the power generation of renewable energy such as wind and solar energy is restricted by the natural condition of intermittent, further development puts forward higher requirements on the storage technology of electric power. The government also needs to increase investment in the construction of power plants, and the uncertainty of factors such as technology and policies has led to large differences in the predictions of the future development of renewable energy by different agencies. Among them, the IEA’s forecast is more optimistic. It believes that by 2035 renewable energy power generation (including hydropower) will account for half of the global power generation growth, and its share of global power generation will increase to 31%, becoming the most important part of the power industry. fuel. In addition, the EU will continue to lead the use of renewable energy, but by 2035, China will become the country with the largest increase in renewable energy power generation, surpassing the EU and the United States combined. In summary, the diversification of energy supply is the general trend.


2. The focus of energy trade shifts from the Atlantic Basin to the Asia-Pacific


As the pattern of energy supply and demand changes, the center of world energy trade will shift from the Atlantic Basin to the Asia-Pacific region. Global energy trade, especially oil trade, has been showing a trend of high concentration. In the past, the supply of oil was highly dependent on the Middle East, South America and Russia, while the oil demand mainly came from the three regions of North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. Due to the uneven distribution of oil resources, there is an obvious dislocation between the global oil supply and demand sides, and the three major oil trading areas of North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific have gradually formed.


In the future, as energy self-sufficiency in North America rises, European oil and gas imports peak, and strong economic growth in emerging market countries such as China and India drives rapid growth in energy demand, the world's energy trade center will shift to the Asia-Pacific region. According to statistics from BP, the oil imports of the United States and Europe in 2015 were 23.0 million barrels per day, a decrease of 3.9 million barrels per day from 2005, and their share of total oil trade dropped from 51.5% in 2005 to 37.6% in 2015; the proportion of oil imports in the Asia-Pacific region has increased year by year, reaching 49.0% in 2015, surpassing the United States and Europe combined. At present, the oil imports of China and India alone have reached 12.6 million barrels per day, which exceeds the US’s 9.4 million barrels per day and is close to Europe’s 13.6 million barrels per day. According to IEA predictions, by 2035, Asia will become the center of global oil trading.


In terms of different regions, North America has gradually transformed into an oil export zone, and its dependence on foreign countries has been decreasing. Take the United States as an example. In order to reverse the situation where energy supply is restricted by the Middle East, the United States has been committed to finding a sustainable energy path. According to EIA statistics, the US's net oil imports fell from 10.4 million barrels/day in 2000 to 4.7 million barrels/day in 2015, and the degree of dependence on foreign oil dropped from 52.9% to 24.0%, as mentioned above. , The United States will become a net oil exporter in 2030; the net import volume of natural gas has dropped from 100.18 billion cubic meters in 2000 to 26.46 billion cubic meters in 2015, and the degree of foreign dependence has dropped from 15.2% to 3.4%. In 2015, the US natural gas output reached 767.28 billion cubic meters, which was only slightly lower than the consumption of 777.97 billion cubic meters in the same period.


In the foreseeable future, US natural gas will become self-sufficient and have surplus supplies for export. While increasing the rate of energy self-sufficiency, the United States has also developed neighboring countries such as Canada and Mexico into stable and reliable oil suppliers, and has significantly reduced its dependence on oil in the Middle East and Africa where geopolitics are complex and regional conflicts continue. According to BP statistics, in 2015, the United States' net oil imports from Canada were as high as 2.8 million barrels per day. In the same year, the net oil imports from the Middle East were only about 1.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of about half compared with 2000. The United States' oil self-sufficiency and the supply of neighboring countries have accounted for more than 80% of total consumption, gradually withdrawing from the center of global energy trade.


In order to meet the growing energy demand of emerging market countries such as China and India, Asia will grow into a new global energy trading center. China and India may become the world's largest oil and coal importers respectively. Unlike North America’s continued decline in dependence on foreign oil, Asia’s dependence on oil imports has increased significantly. According to BP’s forecast, Asia will account for close to 80% of inter-regional net imports by 2035, and more than 40% of primary energy demand will depend on Imports have basically contributed to all the new energy trade volume.


Looking specifically at China, China’s oil imports continued to increase during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, from 5.8 million barrels/day in 2010 to 7.4 million barrels/day in 2015, an average annual increase of 320,000 barrels/day; Oil exports remained stable, fluctuating around 800,000 barrels per day; net oil imports continued to increase, from 5.1 million barrels per day in 2010 to 6.6 million barrels per day in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3% . As the growth rate of net oil imports is higher than the 4.5% growth rate of average daily oil consumption, the degree of dependence on foreign oil has increased for ten consecutive years. In 2015, the degree of dependence on foreign oil rose to 60.3%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from 2010. According to the prediction of the China Energy Research Society, China's dependence on foreign oil will reach about 68% in 2030.


At present, the Middle East is still the largest supplier of China's oil imports, accounting for about 50% of China's total oil imports. Among them, Saudi Arabia used to be China's largest crude oil supplier, but since October 2014, China has gradually reduced its crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia, and has significantly increased its oil imports to Russia. In 2015, Russia exported to China. 42.4 million tons of crude oil. According to Chinese customs data, in May 2015, Russia began to surpass Saudi Arabia to become China's largest crude oil supplier. All in all, in the future, Asia will become an energy export market for the Middle East, South America, Russia and other regions to compete for.


3. Energy prices will gradually rise


Among energy prices, oil prices have typical and representative significance. On the one hand, most of the fuels and products used in many fields come from petroleum. On the other hand, the price of coal has always been directly affected by the price of oil, and the trend is roughly the same; in recent years, the price of natural gas seems to have gotten rid of the trend of fluctuating with oil prices. However, unlike oil, natural gas has not yet formed a global unified market. , North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific have different gas price formation mechanisms, resulting in significant price differences.


From the perspective of oil prices, from 1990 to 2002, oil prices were relatively stable, basically maintaining around US$20/barrel; from 2003 to 2008, oil prices soared from US$28.9/barrel to US$97.0/barrel; Due to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, oil prices reached a local lowest point in 2009, and then began to rise again, reaching an all-time high of -105.0 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2012; from 2013 to 2015, the oil price fell from 104.0 U.S. dollars per barrel to US$50.8/barrel, an average annual decline of US$26.6 per barrel. The price trend of coal is basically synchronized with that of oil. After experiencing the price drop in 2009, it returned to the high point of 130.1 US dollars per ton in 2011. After that, the price of coal continued to fall until 2015. The price of natural gas briefly got rid of the trend of fluctuating with oil prices in 2012, but since 2014, it has decreased with the drop in oil prices. This shows that currently affected by the oversupply of global energy, energy prices continue to be sluggish.


During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period (2016-2020), although energy prices are operating at a low level, they have seen a slight rebound. According to the forecast data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after the oil price reached a record low of 34.8 US dollars/barrel in 2016, it began to rise slightly. In 2020, the oil price will reach 49.4 US dollars/barrel, an average annual increase of 9.2%; natural gas prices From US$2.1/MMBtu in 2016 to US$2.7/MMBtu in 2020, an average annual increase of 7.2%.


As of 2020, the upward trend of coal prices has not yet appeared. Taking oil as an example, the fundamental reason for the price rebound during this period was the change in supply and demand. From a demand perspective, driven by the economic growth of emerging market countries such as India and China, global oil demand has steadily increased. Non-OECD regions will contribute most of the increase in global oil demand; from a supply perspective, OPEC regions will contribute to the increase in global oil supply. However, its growth rate will slow down. At the same time, the output of relatively high-cost oil producing areas such as the United States, Europe, Latin America, and China has declined due to low oil prices, and accidental events such as forest fires in Canada and armed conflicts in Nigeria have caused oil in the region. Supply cuts, the surplus in the global oil market has gradually eased, and international oil prices have gradually recovered from the low at the beginning of the year.


After 2020, although increasingly stringent carbon emission policies have increased the replacement of oil by clean energy and reduced the demand for oil, global oil demand will continue to be supported by global population growth and the continuous advancement of industrialization and urbanization in emerging market countries. Maintain growth, but the rate of increase is gradually slowing down. In order to meet the increasing global oil demand, a large amount of new investment in the oil field will also be added. At the same time, as oil extraction areas gradually shift to high-cost areas, the marginal oil extraction costs will gradually rise. Therefore, it is comprehensively expected that international oil prices will maintain an upward trend, but the average rate of recovery is slower than that of 2016-2020. According to IEA forecasts, in the next 10 years, the average annual price of Brent crude oil futures may rise to 80-120. USD/barrel.


On the whole, the North American "shale gas revolution", the rapid economic development of emerging market countries, global climate change and the breakthrough development of new energy have caused significant changes in the world's energy landscape. These changes can be summarized in the following five points: Despite the current weak energy demand, fast-developing emerging market countries will drive continued growth in energy demand; natural gas will replace coal as the second largest fuel in the future, and the proportion of renewable energy will rise rapidly; With the rise of unconventional oil and gas such as rock oil and shale gas, energy supply is becoming more multi-polar and diversified; the focus of energy trade has shifted from the Atlantic Basin to the Asia-Pacific region; the global energy supply and demand will tend to balance in the future, and energy prices will rise slowly.


Disclaimer: The above content is reproduced from Energy Intelligence, and the content posted does not represent the position of this platform.